The real threat to Google: The mobile form factor?

I picked up this rather interesting discussion piece from Ben Kunz of Business Week this morning. He points out that as more and more searches move to the mobile phone, Google is going to have quite a challenge stuffing many adverts on small mobile screens.

No, one of the most formidable challenges facing Google (GOOG) is likely sitting in your pocket or purse. It’s your cell phone, and it will put added pressure on Google and other Internet companies to revamp the way they handle online marketing.

As more people use cell phones and their tiny glass screens to gain access to the Internet, Google and its fellow online advertisers will have less space, or what’s called ad inventory, to place marketing messages for customers. Google makes money selling ad inventory. And its ad inventory is diminished on a cell phone.

On one hand, I totally agree. On the other hand, I think it should help Google — in the end. The fewer opportunities there are to reach a mobile user, the more valuable the opportunities become, right? Supply and demand.

However, I doubt that we’re going to be using search that much in 10 years time. I think we’ll be using context a lot more.

Standing in Marshall Street this morning in the rain, I thought, “Where’s the nearest cash point?”

I had to stand and think. I didn’t get my handset out and fire up the FindMyNearest function on my Vodafone E90. It would take too long. Say, maybe 30-60 seconds to give me the answer. So I just walked to an Abbey bank on Oxford Street. Mobile failed me, there. Or, rather, I couldn’t be arsed waiting for the 1980s technology to solve my problem.

I should have been able to flip up my mobile screen, click on ‘nearby’ (or something similar), click on ‘cash point’ and be immediately presented with five of the nearest options, complete with 3D Google Map and a flashing ‘You Are Here’ dot.

Is that search? No. If I’m looking for the price of a Burberry Handbag, that’s arguably ‘search’. If I’m looking for a cash point, isn’t that — shouldn’t that — location-sensitive information be ready, right there in the background for me to use? It’s context, not search.

I think the future is rosey for Google on Mobile. They most certainly don’t have all the answers — nobody quite does as yet — but they’re innovating continually (ie. Google Maps) and they’re well placed to react quickly (or acquire as necessary).