What's gone wrong with Chinese 3G?

More interesting stats – according to EJL Wireless Research, the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers is set to hit 12 million by 2012 with roughly the same number of terminals expected to be sold in the same year, at 11.5 million.

Given that TD-SCDMA is the Chinese government’s baby and it’s been pushing it heavily for years – and also given the relative size of the Chinese market – I’m wondering what’s gone wrong with this particular flavour of 3G. After all, China Mobile even gave away 15,000 devices to draw attention to the TD-SCDMA launch.

Or is it just the case that the numbers will be so low because TD-SCDMA will have been superceded by LTE by then?